© Le Coq Sportif

July 24th 2024

The global dairy market in 2023 witnessed a rebalancing of prices after the inflationary pressures of 2022, although prices remained high. The market dynamics largely followed established trends, setting the stage for the year ahead.

French Dairy Exports: A Shift in the Market

In 2023, French dairy exports experienced a decline in both volume (-6%, down to 2.7 million tons) and value (-4%, totaling €8.98 billion). Despite the drop, the relatively smaller decrease in value indicates that French dairy products continue to be well-regarded on the international stage. France retained its position as the fourth largest global dairy exporter by both volume and value, trailing behind Germany, the Netherlands, and New Zealand.

Imports Take a Dip After Three Years

For the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, French dairy imports saw a decline in both value (-9.6%, down to €5.55 billion) and volume (-9.5%, totaling 1.4 million tons). This reduction was most noticeable in imports from key partners: the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany saw significant declines, while Italy saw a slight increase in value despite a drop in volume. The decline was widespread across almost all dairy product categories, with the exception of milk and cream.

Looking Ahead to 2024: Key Trends and Projections

According to forecasts by the US Department of Agriculture, global milk production is expected to stabilize in 2024, with anticipated decreases in Europe and New Zealand due to herd reductions. China's demand for dairy products is projected to remain steady, with local milk powder production and high national stock levels influencing import volumes. Butter imports will remain important, although domestic consumption growth is expected to be minimal. Conversely, cheese imports are set to rise, driven by increasing global demand.

The overall outlook for the global cheese market is positive, with a projected growth of +1% in EU cheese exports. This growth is supported by a strong international demand and higher profitability margins compared to butter and milk powders. In the United States, factors such as economic recovery, rising incomes, and a rebound in the hospitality and tourism sectors are expected to boost domestic cheese consumption, further increasing import needs.

As we move into 2024, the global dairy industry continues to adapt to shifting consumer preferences and market dynamics. Stakeholders across the sector will need to navigate these changes strategically to capitalize on the emerging opportunities and sustain growth.